Modeling the influence of the structure and level of alcohol consumption on the indicator of lost years of healthy life

Abstract

Objective. To model the influence of the structure and level of alcohol consumption on the rate of disability adjusted life years (DALY) in Belarus.

Materials and methods. Official data of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus. Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Data Resources. Econometric analysis.

Results and conclusion. Significant positive economic effects will be accompanied by both a decrease in the total volume of alcohol consumption and a change in the consumption structure due to a decrease in the share of spirits: a reduction in consumption to 8 l per person aged 15 years and older with an unchanged structure will provide an economic effect equivalent to 0,9 to 1,4 % of GDP per year, and a decrease in the proportion of strong alcohol (including «other») up to 15 % with a constant level of consumption will provide about 1,5 % of GDP annual economic effect. Simultaneous reduction of the consumption level to 8 l and the share of strong alcohol to 15 % will give an economic effect of 2,2 to 3,2 % of GDP.