A model for predicting the probability of atrial fibrillation development in patients with arterial hypertension
Abstract
Objective. To develop a model for predicting the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with arterial hypertension (AH), considering echocardiographic parameters and the main risk factors (RFs) for cardiovascular diseases (CVD).
Materials and methods. 120 patients with stage I and II AH were examined. Of these, 60 patients, the study group, had paroxysmal AF, and 60 patients without AF formed the comparison group. All patients underwent measurement of anthropometric data, assessment of the key CVD RFs, and transthoracic echocardiography.
Results. The following predictors were included in the created model for predicting the AF development: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, left atrial volume/height2 index (> 18.5 ml/m2 in men and > 16.5 ml/m2 in women), left ventricular end-diastolic size index, maximum speed of transmitral blood flow in the late filling phase (peak A). Sensitivity and specificity were 70 %, AUC — 0.769 (95 % CI (0.683—0.856)).
Conclusions. The developed predictive model makes it possible to verify individuals at high risk of developing AF among patients with AH and can be used in both outpatient and inpatient basis.
About the Authors
N. Bukvalnaya
Гродненский государственный медицинский университет
Belarus
Belarus
L. Yakubova
Гродненский государственный медицинский университет
Belarus
Belarus
A. Kapytski
Гродненский государственный медицинский университет
Belarus
Belarus
V. Snezhitskiy
Гродненский государственный медицинский университет
Belarus
Belarus
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Review
For citations:
Bukvalnaya N., Yakubova L., Kapytski A., Snezhitskiy V. A model for predicting the probability of atrial fibrillation development in patients with arterial hypertension. Healthcare. 2025;(7):37—45. (In Russ.)
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