Assessment of the risk of recurrence in patients with respiratory tuberculosis based on multifactorial analysis

Objective. To develop a method for determining the risk of recurrence for patients with respiratory tuberculosis based on a multifactorial mathematical model.

Materials and methods. The study included data from 224 patients with respiratory tuberculosis of working age, who were sent for the first time to the Minsk City Medical Rehabilitation Expert Commission to determine disability. In difficult expert cases, to the consultative and polyclinic department of the Russian National Research Center for Medical Examination and Rehabilitation to clarify the severity of existing disability and clinical and labor prognosis. The observation period covered 2017–2024. The average age (SE) of patients in this cohort was 47.4 (0.71) years.

Results. In the course of the study, a multifactorial mathematical model was developed that includes statistically significant risk factors: age over 51 years (B = 0.60; OR = 1.82; 90 % CI (1.039–3.18); p = 0.049), living in rural areas (B = -1.07; OR = 2.92; 90 % CI (1.66–5.15); p = 0.002), social category “not workingˮ (B = 0.78; OR = 2.19; 90 % CI (1.15–4.18); p = 0.046), basic level of education (B = -0.64; OR = 1.89; 90 % CI (1.06–3.34); p = 0.048), skill level (B = -0.42; OR = 1.51; 90 % CI (1.08–2.13); p = 0.045), type of qualification (B = 0.85; OR = 2.34; 90 % CI (1.39–3.96); p = 0.008), the presence of which affects the risk of disease recurrence in the study cohort of patients with respiratory tuberculosis.

Сonclusion. The developed comprehensive methodology for assessing the risk of recurrence in patients with tuberculosis of the respiratory system includes a multifactorial mathematical model developed on the basis of logistic regression, as well as a classification scoring scheme that allows using the results of logistic regression in clinical and expert practice in the form of an Integral score for assessing the risk of recurrence in patients with tuberculosis of the respiratory system.

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