Changes in the characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic waves in the Republic of Belarus, 2020–2022

Objective. To determine the structural features of COVID-19 epidemic waves in the Republic of Belarus in 2020–2022.
Materials and methods. A retrospective descriptive-analytical study of COVID-19 incidence dynamics was conducted using aggregated official statistical data from February 28, 2020 to May 8, 2022. Epidemic waves were identified based on weekly incidence trends. The following indicators were calculated: duration of epidemic waves, peak and mean incidence rates (per 100,000 population), peak-to-mean ratio, intensity coefficient, cumulative epidemic burden, as well as the calculated reproduction number (R).
Results. Four consecutive epidemic waves were identified. Peak incidence increased from 71.4 to 583.7 per 100,000 population, while mean incidence rose from 37.1 to 134.3 per 100,000 population. At the same time, the duration of epidemic waves decreased from 45 to 17 weeks. The highest cumulative epidemic burden was observed during the second (3699.0) and third (3133.2) waves. A progressive shift in the relationship between COVID-19 and acute respiratory infections was identified, from discordant dynamics in the first wave to near-complete temporal alignment in the fourth wave. The mean values of the estimated reproduction number decreased from 2.4 to 1.0 and did not correlate with the intensity of epidemic peaks.
Conclusion. The transformation of the COVID-19 epidemic process manifested as changes in the configuration of epidemic waves, a reduction in their duration alongside increasing intensity, and convergence with the seasonal circulation patterns of respiratory infections, thereby substantiating the feasibility of its epidemiological surveillance within the existing monitoring system for acute respiratory infections.

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